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RANT about the market

Updated: Sep 26, 2019

I have read and heard about potential recession, growing debt, global slowdown, from 2015, when #SPX was around 1,800.

This is not new, it is all there for real, BUT - it lasts for YEARS, and it will take time - YEARS - to accumulate and market to react. Until that happens, persistent short sellers are going to be OBLITERATED.

And then, when we finally get a real bear market, not this bad joke Christmas eve bear market, but a real bear market, all of those analysts that were WRONG from 2015, will say to you – “well, there you go, I said so”. What about that 1,100+ points from 1,800 to ~2,940 ??? Do you have skin in a game or not?

They will probably say – “Well, topping patterns need time”.

OK. But what about that 1,100+ points??? What about the fact that long holders and investors made a bunch of profit holding? If they would listen to YOU, they would be broke. I have worked in trading companies that followed this kind of reasoning, and they would always hold short positions on US indices. Needles to say, that positions were losers in majority of time.

My 2 cents on all of this: Stick to the charts. Remember that nobody knows exactly where the market is going, all that we can do is make scenarios. Try to be unbiased. Buy strong market, sell weak market, do your analyses, determine where are larger time frame support and resistance zones – areas that can be inflection points. Good trading location is the only trading edge. Being perma bull or perma bear is not an option for active traders.

IF we get a REAL bear market – that would open doors for volatility and better trading opportunities. There were 22 corrections from the 2009 lows before the 20% drop from October 2018. Many of the market participants don’t know how to trade in that kind of environment. Easy money made on buy-the-dip markets could be gone IF we get a bear market. As George Slezak said in his book - "People are natural born buyers." And Central banks will do whatever they can to support the markets. When and IF the “big short” comes, THEN we are going to trade it. We need confirmation for this.


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