StrayDog's Weekly Analyses - August 2, 2020

Last week was Up for US indices, Down for German DAX. Some important data, like German and US GDP and FOMC Statements are behind our backs, and now heading into the NFP week.


Scheduled data and earnings:

Nothing much this week, except NFP Report on Friday.

Big week for German Earnings Reports, with 13 of DAX 30 components reporting.



Chart #1 - Monthly chart of indices, with SMA200


End of the month, so let's take a glance at Monthly charts.

German DAX as the only one with the red doji candle. All thanks to last week. Green candles and one time framing for others.



Chart #2 - SPX Daily


Friday as a bullish hammer. Day started as profit taking, after the Big Tech Earnings on Thursday, but then completely reversed. Still inside the 3200-3280 range, with the partially filled gap above. Nothing much above that 48 pts gap, except ATH.



Chart #3 - NQ_F Daily


Nasdaq 100 leading to the upside, and trading channel still intact. Also with the Friday as a hammer candle.



Chart #4 - RUT Daily


Small cap index Russell 2000 consolidating on top of important zone and DMA200. Notable divergence with NDX.




Chart #5 - FDAX and Cash Index Daily, with DMA200


Take a look on your own on Daily charts of FDAX or Cash Index, and you will see how price was respecting and reacting from DMA200 many times in the past. (DMA200 as Daily Simple Moving Average 200).


On Friday, Futures bounced from it, in the Afterhours - while Cash did not, RTH session was already over. This "nuance" COULD be important on Monday.


Let's zoom in a bit here.



Chart #6 - DAX Cash Daily

(from Setups Gallery as additional chart)


Let's zoom even more...



Chart #7 - FDAX 120 min


Bounce from DMA200 with bullish divergence. Well defined resistance and range. Something to chew on for Monday.



Conclusion:


As written in last Weekly Analyses, there was a bearish divergence, both on SPX and DAX.


I wrote "Chance for more downside is NOW, the question is will sellers succeed of fail. "


Nothing much happened on SPX, while on German DAX - we had a down week, with Trend Down Day on Thursday. US indices recovered, SPX and NDX looking ready to move higher, RUT looking neutral and in the range - breakout or not there, that would be the question, while DAX is weak. And plenty of important Earnings reports for German market.


What will happen with SPX and 3200-3280 range, could shape the next week. Hard to guess, so I will take it day by day. "Summer market" so far, that provided many false breaks opportunities, and fading the range.

Range and DMA200 on DAX.

Range on RUT.

Channel on NDX.

Day by day.


Very important to ADJUST to current PA, and NOT to be "married" to a single idea, like DAX traders had to do on Thursday, after observing strong and sustained downside momentum.


DAX - Thursday, July 30, TREND DOWN DAY

Email update 48 minutes after the open (Chart from Setups Gallery, part of it, without detailed explanation of each entry point.)




Simple setups


As written before, every day you can find some easy setup - and your job is then to EXECUTE on it. Nothing to think there - thinking and prep should already be done.


Example #1 - RUT 60 min chart, Friday, July 31st

Example #2 - SPX, Friday, July 31st

(struggle was on ONL, and NOT on ONH)

Chance for long, chance for short...


This is just to name a few of those, and you can find more on my twitter feed.


That would be it for this weekly blog.


 

In short term trading it is very important to properly understand context heading into every day, to know from which side wind is blowing - who has the short term control, and which side will be forced to liquidate IF and WHEN market hold above or below a certain level. What is the level of volatility, what can we expect from any particular day, what market already done in premarket session, what possible setups can be available, and so on... the things that we constantly learn in the DAILY DOSE OF DAX.

Cheers, StrayDog